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Volume 10,Issue 4

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28 November 2023
The Evaluation of Alternative Risk Control Schemes Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory
Hai Zhao ,  Yuliang Wang
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1 Sichuan Guangmian Highway Headquarters, China Railway No. 5 Engineering Group CO., LTD., Chengdu 610000, Sichuan Province, China,
2 School of Public Administration, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610000, Sichuan Province, China,
JARD 2023 , 7(6), 17–22; https://doi.org/10.26689/jard.v7i6.5657
© 2023 by the Authors. Licensee Whioce Publishing, Singapore. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ )
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Abstract

Based on the analysis of the evaluation problems associated with the risk control scheme for major engineering projects, the evaluation method of the risk control scheme considering the irrational behavior of evaluation members in fuzzy random environment is proposed. Firstly, a maximum entropy model corresponding to any evaluation member is established by using triangular fuzzy random variables and grey correlation coefficient in order to obtain the weight of each risk factor of the member. Secondly, a nonlinear programming model is established according to the principle of minimizing deviation to estimate the weight of different evaluation members on the evaluation of alternative risk control schemes. Lastly, the cumulative entropy model is used to calculate the weight of risk control schemes. Cumulative prospect theory obtains the comprehensive prospect utility value of each alternative to determine the optimal alternative.

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