ARTICLE
3 September 2026

LSTM-Based Operating-State Forecasting and Risk Warning for Small-Scale Battery Energy Storage Systems Using Multi-Source Aging Data

Qian Wang1* Xing Wan2 Lihua Luo3
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1 School of Artificial Intelligence, Leshan Vocational and Technical College, Leshan, China
2 School of Intelligent Manufacturing, Leshan Vocational and Technical College, Leshan, China
3 Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Shah Alam, Malaysia
JERA 2026 , 10(8), 15–21; https://doi.org/10.26689/JERA.v10i8.15204
© 2026 by the Author. Licensee Whioce Publishing, Singapore. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ )
Abstract

Senseless computing resources are needed to achieve reliable forecasting in small-scale battery energy storage. In this research, the authors present an LSTM-based framework to normalize NASA and CALCE aging data, separate the data for battery-level prediction, predict 5-cycle-ahead state of health (SOH), and transform residual and health signals to warnings. In this work, LSTM was tested against the NASA and CALCE datasets using a common seven-model protocol and obtained competitive cross-cell performance (NASA: MAE 0.01219, RMSE 0.01619; CALCE: MAE 0.01149, RMSE 0.02331). Controlled anomaly tests detected all severe abrupt drops, and low-SOH risk was separated from model unexplained deviations by replay on CALCE CS2_38. Results of a rerun with an independent CPU were consistent with the original rankings of models and the statistical interpretation. The result is that the framework offers a simple and repeatable foundation for battery-state monitoring, but validation of the field-fault is still required. 

Keywords
Battery energy storage system
Long short-term memory
State of health
Time-series forecasting
Risk warning
Funding
Leshan Engineering Technology Research Center for Energy Storage Materials and Systems through the project “Research on Operation State Perception and Risk Early Warning Methods for Small-Scale Energy Storage Systems” (Project No.: CNY202607)
References

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[8]       Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering, n.d., CALCE Battery Data: CS2 Battery, University of Maryland, visited on 29 Jul 2026, https://calce.umd.edu/battery-data.

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