Under the dual national strategies of “300 Million People Participating in Winter Sports” and Jilin Province’s development as a “Winter Sports Economy Powerhouse”, ice and snow tourism has become a core driver for regional economic transformation and winter consumption market activation. However, existing research inadequately explores the driving mechanisms of ice and snow tourism behaviors in small and medium-sized cities and specific regions, particularly lacking systematic empirical analysis based on the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). This study focuses on potential ice and snow tourists in Jilin Province, integrating TPB core dimensions with tourism scenario characteristics to construct a theoretical framework of “attitude-subjective norms-perceived behavioral control-tourism intention.” Through questionnaire surveys collecting 623 valid samples, the study conducted validity/consistency testing, correlation analysis, and structural equation modeling using SPSS 29.0 and AMOS 23.0. The findings reveal that attitude (β=0.327, P < 0.001), subjective norms (β=0.285, P < 0.001), and perceived behavioral control (β=0.251, P < 0.001) all significantly positively influence tourism intention, with attitude exerting the strongest effect. At the factor level, perceived tourism value (β=0.612, P < 0.001), influence of social reference groups (β=0.587, P < 0.001), and transportation/time convenience (β=0.563, P < 0.001) are key drivers across dimensions. These results provide theoretical foundations and practical references for optimizing ice and snow tourism product supply and developing targeted marketing strategies in Jilin Province.