Since the expansion of higher education enrollment in 1999, the gross enrollment ratio of university students in China has increased from 15% in 2002 to 65% in 2024. In the context of this expansion, it is imperative to investigate the historical trends in professional commitment among university students. Utilizing a longitudinal historical meta-analysis approach, this study compiled data on the levels of professional commitment among university students over the past 22 years. The analysis revealed a consistent increase in the levels of professional commitment and its dimensions, namely, affective commitment, idealistic commitment, and continuance commitment, over time. Additionally, this research examined the predictive role of various social indicators on professional commitment among university students, identifying significant factors such as national higher education funding, per capita higher education expenditure, student-to-faculty ratios, the proportion of faculty with advanced titles, full-time faculty, and the number and scope of research and development institutions and projects. Further exploration of subgroup differences revealed no significant differences in professional commitment between female and female students, although the trend of increase was slightly higher among females. When comparing students across academic years, a stepwise increase in professional commitment was observed with advancing grade levels.